Although investing is far noisier and uncertain than most card games, it is also an activity where understanding the odds is critical. While investors may feel uncomfortable talking about their decision making in probabilistic terms, it is inherent in everything we do – whether we are explicit about it or not. Much like assessing our chances in a particular game of cards, active investors should be asking themselves three questions before making a decision:
1) What are the odds of the game?
2) Do I have skill?
3) What hand have I been dealt?
More here – Behavioural Investment
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