Bond Market

The U.K. Debt/GDP Ratio Is NOT Going To 1000%

The U.K. Debt/GDP Ratio Is NOT Going To 1000%

The U.K. Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its “Fiscal Risks and Sustainability” report (link) and it contains the eye-catching ...
Forward Guidance Important? Yes And No.

Forward Guidance Important? Yes And No.

I have returned from travels, and trying to catch up on things. The most important headlines have been about the ...
Yet More U.K. Bond Market Vigilantism

Yet More U.K. Bond Market Vigilantism

I have been getting ready to leave town, and so wrapping up other projects. The only thing that popped up ...
Bond Vigilante Musings

Bond Vigilante Musings

Bond vigilantes are a popular topic in financial media. Part of this is that most people find government bonds boring, ...
Belated Comments On The AI Boom

Belated Comments On The AI Boom

Animal spirits have been soaring in the area of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the surge in spending has shown up ...
Inflation Outlook: Was I Too Pessimistic?

Inflation Outlook: Was I Too Pessimistic?

Although I have not been attempting to do economic forecasts, the current environment is surprising to me, at least with ...
Book Comments: “The Deficit Delusion”

Book Comments: “The Deficit Delusion”

A new book at my library caught my eye — “The Deficit Delusion: Why Everything Left, Right, and the Supply ...
Canadian Inflation Comments

Canadian Inflation Comments

So far, the gasoline price shock in Canada has not been as bad as what happened after the pandemic, but ...
Ceasefire Sort-Of Holding?

Ceasefire Sort-Of Holding?

The world economy remains hostage to the war in the Middle East. Although the news flow remains extremely erratic, direct ...
Public Bank Lending

Public Bank Lending

In my previous article, I discussed (traditional) postal banking, in which the central government manages a deposit-taking bank (which historically ...
Postal Savings Banks

Postal Savings Banks

Postal savings banks are a venerable form of public banks. They were traditionally aimed at providing payment and savings options ...
Bond And Loan Financing

Bond And Loan Financing

In an earlier article, I did an over-simplified discussion of how a local public bank would interact with municipal bond ...
No War Plan Still

No War Plan Still

The main reason to be pessimistic about the war between Iran versus the United States and Israel is the lack ...
Public Banks And Municipal Bonds

Public Banks And Municipal Bonds

Tyler Suksawat and Scott Ferguson recently published “Reclaiming the Public Interest: Cities Should Sell Municipal Bonds to Their Own Public ...
Victory Declared — Did Not Go Home

Victory Declared — Did Not Go Home

I am about to write another article for publication tomorrow (I hope), but just wanted to express my dismay about ...
Declare Victory And Go Home

Declare Victory And Go Home

The last 24 hours were chaotic in the oil futures and equity markets. From the perspective of an East Coast ...
Iran War Risks

Iran War Risks

The main global economic risk associated with the renewed war against Iran is an energy price spike. (Regional problems are ...
Deflations Not Easy And Benign

Deflations Not Easy And Benign

This article is a preliminary unedited draft section of my inflation manuscript. There are therefore references to other “sections” and ...
Secular Employment Shifts

Secular Employment Shifts

The Payrolls Employment Report in the United States released earlier this week was stronger than expected (although there were downward ...
“Sell The Dollar”: Think Price, Not Flows

“Sell The Dollar”: Think Price, Not Flows

The “sell the dollar” trade is coming up in the chatter I see. I think that economists love making international ...
Liberation Day 2.0

Liberation Day 2.0

The latest crisis of the weekend was the announced tariffs on selected European countries for their decision to base a ...
Canadian Economy: Muddling, But 2026 Looms

Canadian Economy: Muddling, But 2026 Looms

Courtesy of President Trump chickening out on breaking the USMCA/CUSMA free trade agreement on autos, the damage due to the ...
UK MMT Wrangling

UK MMT Wrangling

There’s been a rise of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) wrangling on my Bluesky timeline, largely the result of intra-left mudslinging ...
EU5 And Economics Part II: Inflation And The Fall Of The Roman Empire

EU5 And Economics Part II: Inflation And The Fall Of The Roman Empire

This article is a part of a series that resulted from some observations about the economic modelling in the strategy ...