“Paying For Two Wars”
Comments by Treasury Secretary Yellen and President Biden about “paying for two wars” has attracted some chatter. For example, Adam ...
Slopes And Recession Probabilities
Menzie Chinn just published a short note “Inversions, Bear Steepening Dis-Inversions, and Recessions.” He was responding to an article that ...
Comments On Logan Speech
Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed gave a recent speech in which the term premium figured. Although I think Logan’s ...
Income-Driven Returns: The Resilience of Municipal Bonds
Historically, investors have purchased bonds for their steady coupon payments. This relationship was thrown on its head as the Fed ...
At Least It’s Not As Bad As 1994
The current Treasury bear market has been impressive, and unfortunately for the bond bulls, there is no valuation reason for ...
Posting Hiatus
I have been busy with some consulting work, and will be travelling next week. Although I will be able to ...
The “Economists Monkeying With The CPI” Debate
Note: This is an unedited draft section of my inflation primer manuscript. It is is a chapter about misunderstandings/myths about ...
Inflation And The Labour Market
I have been seeing comments about how labour market models have been misleading this cycle. The fun thing about this ...
Jackson Hole Drive-By Comments
I did a short trip to Lake Placid New York last weekend, and largely missed out on the Jackson Hole ...
Stop Trying To Make BRICS Happen
BRICS was a brilliant bit of sell side marketing, but it has taken a life of its own. One needs ...
Castillo-Martinez And Reis Article On Interest Rates
One of the interesting features of neoclassical macro is the vagueness of how the models are supposed to work. One ...
Neoclassical Interest Rate Articles
I ran into a pair of articles about interest rates by neoclassicals. They are straightforward by the standards of neoclassical ...
Inflation Or Nominal GDP Targeting? Whatever.
Nominal GDP targeting is the latest mainstream fad, which is allegedly going to improve central banking when compared to inflation ...
Decoupling
Although I am not a forecaster, I periodically comment on what I would probably be looking at if I attempted ...
Advantages To Procedural Changes In Bond Market?
From my recent Torrens Zoom call, I ran into questions about procedures in the government bond markets. The main question ...
Went Fishin’
Been quiet recently since I was off for a couple of weeks in Jolly Old England. This was a trip ...
40 Million Canadians!
The estimated population of Canada has reached 40 million (link to Statistics Canada information). Although reaching that level is not ...
Bernanke & Blanchard Paper Comments
Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard recently published “What caused the US pandemic-era inflation?” The paper creates a basic model for ...
Greedflation: Understanding the Impact of Greed on Inflation and the Economy
Greedflation: Greedflation: the convergence of greed and inflation, two powerful forces that shape the economic landscape. In this comprehensive article, ...
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Comments
U.S. Breakeven Inflation I recently reviewed a breakeven inflation chart and noticed some interesting trends. In this article, I will ...
Sellers’ Inflation
Definition and concept of seller’s inflation Seller’s inflation refers to the phenomenon of rising prices and increasing costs of goods ...
Primer: The Cantillon Effect
The Cantillon Effect is the label applied to a process described in Richard Cantillon’s , «Essai sur la nature du ...
Understanding the Money Multiplier in the Bond Market
Money Multiplier in the Bond Market Discover the power of the money multiplier in the bond market. This comprehensive article ...
